NYSE: BCO - The Brink's Company

Yield per half year: +42.4%
Sector: Industrials

Current price: 100.11 $
Average price: 178.38 $

Price according to DDM model: 16.66 $ -83.36%
Price according to DCF model (ebitda): 438.56 $ +338.07%
Price according to DCF model (FCF): 257.27 $ +156.98%
Price based on EPS: 17.54 $ -82.48%
Discount price Net Income: 161.86 $ +61.68%
6/10

Dividend Discount Model

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - Fair price
DPS — Current dividend
g — expected growth rate
Cost Of Equity — discount rate
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risk-free rate of return
β (beta) — coefficient characterizing the measure of market risk of shares
Risk Premium — risk premium - premium for the risk of investing in shares
Country Premium - country risk
Fair price = 16.66 $
Current price = 100.11 $ (difference = -83.36%)


Data

Discounted Cash Flow (Based on EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - Number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 438.56 $
Current price = 100.11 $ (difference = +338.07%)


Data

Discounted Cash Flow (Based on FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - Number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 257.27 $
Current price = 100.11 $ (difference = +156.98%)


Data

Price based on EPS

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = Key rate
Fair price = 17.54 $
Current price = 100.11 $ (difference = -82.48%)


Data

Discount price Net Income

Price = Fair cap / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Fair cap — fair capitalization
Count shares - Number of shares
Fair cap = Avg(P/E) * Discount Net Income(5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 161.86 $
Current price = 100.11 $ (difference = +61.68%)


Data