MOEX: TRNF - Транснефть

Yield per half year: +9.05%
Sector: Транспорт

Current price: 1597
Average price: 36467.91

Price according to DDM model: 76851.28+4 712.23%
Price according to DCF model (ebitda): 103465.12+6 378.72%
Price according to DCF model (FCF): 33389.01+1 990.73%
Price based on EPS: 1041.54-34.78%
Discount price Net Income: 2289.37+43.35%
Average analyst price: 1771.14+10.9%
8.33/10

Dividend Discount Model

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - Fair price
DPS — Current dividend
g — expected growth rate
Cost Of Equity — discount rate
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risk-free rate of return
β (beta) — coefficient characterizing the measure of market risk of shares
Risk Premium — risk premium - premium for the risk of investing in shares
Country Premium - country risk
Fair price = 76 851.28 ₽    (priv. = 768.51)
Current price = 1 597 ₽ (difference = 4712.23%)
priv.: Current price = 1 600 ₽ (difference = -51.97%)


Data

Discounted Cash Flow (Based on EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 103 465.12
Current price = 1 597 ₽ (difference = +6 378.72%)


Data

Discounted Cash Flow (Based on FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Terminal Value — cost in the post-forecast period
Company Value — cost during the forecast period
Count shares - number of shares
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 33 389.01
Current price = 1 597 ₽ (difference = +1 990.73%)


Data

Price based on EPS

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = Key rate
Fair price = 1 041.54
Current price = 1 597 ₽ (difference = -34.78%)


Data

Discount price Net Income

Price = Fair cap / Count shares
Price - Fair price
Fair cap — fair capitalization
Count shares - number of shares
Fair cap = Avg(P/E) * Discount Net Income(5)
WACC - weighted average cost of capital (taking into account country risks, inflation, taxes, etc.)
Fair price = 2 289.37
Current price = 1 597 ₽ (difference = +43.35%)


Data

Average analyst price

Fair price = 1 771.14
Current price = 1 597 ₽ (difference = +10.9%)

Analyst Price forecast Changes Forecast date Expiration date
ПСБ 1874 ₽ +277 ₽ (17.35%) 20.03.2024 20.03.2025
БКС 1650 ₽ +53 ₽ (3.32%) 19.10.2023 24.07.2024
Сигналы РЦБ 1900 ₽ +303 ₽ (18.97%) 12.10.2023 29.06.2024
АКБФ 2185 ₽ +588 ₽ (36.82%) 19.09.2023 13.11.2024
Финам 1769 ₽ +172 ₽ (10.77%) 07.09.2023 06.09.2024
КИТ Финанс 1600 ₽ +3 ₽ (0.19%) 06.09.2023 05.09.2024
Сбер 1420 ₽ -177 ₽ (-11.08%) 24.07.2023 24.10.2023